Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
